Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

124.97 – 59.81

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

241 – 39

Prediction correct · off by 68.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 282.1 ±12.7

9082No Limit

Season APEX 84.4Event APEX 15.05Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4787Axiom

Season APEX 90Event APEX 43.41Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2861Infinity's End

Season APEX 107.7Event APEX 66.51Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 214.9 ±16.3

648QC ELITE Flaming Squirrels

Season APEX 91.3Event APEX 26.64Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2022Titan Robotics

Season APEX 94.1Event APEX 56.19Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

2039Rockford Robotics

Season APEX 29.5Event APEX -23.02Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9082, 4787, 2861

/ 100 compat

Projected

125 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 9082, 4787, 2861

Auto

25.9 21%

Teleop

74.1 60%

Endgame

23.9 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 648, 2022, 2039

/ 100 compat

Projected

59.8 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 648, 2022, 2039

Auto

10.9 20%

Teleop

8.5 15%

Endgame

35.5 65%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.13 · Blue 1.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score125pts

Blue projected score59.8pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 65.2
Score range: 31–154
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 280 vs event baseline 159.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

282.1Season APEX214.9

25.9Auto10.9

74.1Teleop8.5

23.9Endgame35.5

77Consistency89

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	12
teleop	146	11
endgame	65	16
foul	0	0
total	241	39

Result

Final score

241 – 39

Prediction correct · off by 68.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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