Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

71.06 – 105.75

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

107 – 15

Prediction missed · off by 63.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 239.8 ±13.9

7472R2JESU Robotics

Season APEX 61.1Event APEX -36.02Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4645The Chicago Style BotDogs

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 73.97Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 94

5442Mechanical Monarchy

Season APEX 112.2Event APEX 33.11Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 206.2 ±15.3

3067Robovikes

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 43.54Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4156Ninjaneers

Season APEX 64.5Event APEX 41.78Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

8719Oakville Dynamics

Season APEX 75.2Event APEX 20.43Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7472, 4645, 5442

/ 100 compat

Projected

71.1 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 7472, 4645, 5442

Auto

20.2 27%

Teleop

34.3 47%

Endgame

19.1 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3067, 4156, 8719

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.8 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 3067, 4156, 8719

Auto

11.8 13%

Teleop

72.6 82%

Endgame

4.2 5%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.39 · Blue 1.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score71.1pts

Blue projected score105.8pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -34.7
Score range: 41–136
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 122 vs event baseline 164.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

239.8Season APEX206.2

20.2Auto11.8

34.3Teleop72.6

19.1Endgame4.2

102Consistency105

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	10
teleop	78	1
endgame	16	4
foul	0	0
total	107	15

Result

Final score

107 – 15

Prediction missed · off by 63.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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