Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

26.97 – 168.04

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

59 – 210

Prediction correct · off by 37 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 245.1 ±12.7

7417Bionic Bombers

Season APEX 53.6Event APEX -10.67Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7848WI-FIghterz

Season APEX 115.9Event APEX 26.62Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8029Steel Bronco Robotics

Season APEX 75.6Event APEX 11.02Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 552.8 ±13.1

4423MARS' Minions

Season APEX 63.6Event APEX 36.38Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

3284Camdenton LASER 3284

Season APEX 214.6Event APEX -34.06Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4143MARS/WARS

Season APEX 274.6Event APEX 165.72Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7417, 7848, 8029

/ 100 compat

Projected

27 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 7417, 7848, 8029

Auto

20.1 100%

Teleop

7.1 36%

Endgame

-7.6 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4423, 3284, 4143

/ 100 compat

Projected

168 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 4423, 3284, 4143

Auto

36.7 24%

Teleop

97.1 62%

Endgame

22.2 14%

Strengths

· 4143 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.83 · Blue 2.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score27pts

Blue projected score168pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -141.1
Score range: -3–198
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 269 vs event baseline 166.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

245.1Season APEX552.8

20.1Auto36.7

7.1Teleop97.1

-7.6Endgame22.2

106Consistency168

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	49
teleop	20	136
endgame	24	25
foul	0	0
total	59	210

Result

Final score

59 – 210

Prediction correct · off by 37 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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