Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

235.98 – 253.67

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

103 – 258

Prediction correct · off by 68.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 686 ±10.4

3284Camdenton LASER 3284

Season APEX 214.6Event APEX 32Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1756Argos

Season APEX 223.5Event APEX 139.48Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4655Stateline Robotics

Season APEX 247.9Event APEX 64.5Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 457 ±12.8

3067Robovikes

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 44.94Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4143MARS/WARS

Season APEX 274.6Event APEX 172.36Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7848WI-FIghterz

Season APEX 115.9Event APEX 36.37Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3284, 1756, 4655

/ 100 compat

Projected

236 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 3284, 1756, 4655

Auto

38.8 17%

Teleop

140.5 61%

Endgame

49.4 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3067, 4143, 7848

/ 100 compat

Projected

253.7 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 3067, 4143, 7848

Auto

41.9 17%

Teleop

133.3 56%

Endgame

64.4 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.57 · Blue 1.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score236pts

Blue projected score253.7pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -17.7
Score range: 201–289
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 361 vs event baseline 192.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

686Season APEX457

38.8Auto41.9

140.5Teleop133.3

49.4Endgame64.4

13Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	36
teleop	60	156
endgame	32	36
foul	0	30
total	103	258

Result

Final score

103 – 258

Prediction correct · off by 68.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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