Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

115.84 – 188.55

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

181 – 256

Prediction correct · off by 66.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 411.1 ±12.2

4213MetalCow Robotics

Season APEX 98.6Event APEX 26.79Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8096Cache Money

Season APEX 110.9Event APEX 9.08Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1625Winnovation

Season APEX 201.6Event APEX 79.97Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 513.1 ±11

2861Infinity's End

Season APEX 107.7Event APEX 57.6Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8020CyberpunK

Season APEX 157.5Event APEX 94.81Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4655Stateline Robotics

Season APEX 247.9Event APEX 36.14Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4213, 8096, 1625

/ 100 compat

Projected

115.8 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 4213, 8096, 1625

Auto

44.1 44%

Teleop

37.0 37%

Endgame

19.1 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2861, 8020, 4655

/ 100 compat

Projected

188.6 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 2861, 8020, 4655

Auto

14.4 8%

Teleop

119.0 63%

Endgame

56.3 30%

Strengths

· Low variance, consistent output

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.24 · Blue 2.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score115.8pts

Blue projected score188.6pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -72.7
Score range: 87–218
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 437 vs event baseline 163.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

411.1Season APEX513.1

44.1Auto14.4

37Teleop119

19.1Endgame56.3

168Consistency234

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	73
teleop	114	117
endgame	28	51
foul	0	15
total	181	256

Result

Final score

181 – 256

Prediction correct · off by 66.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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