Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

172.44 – 159.3

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

80 – 199

Prediction missed · off by 66.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 473 ±12.2

4096Ctrl-Z

Season APEX 276.4Event APEX 80.42Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9082No Limit

Season APEX 84.4Event APEX 38.36Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5442Mechanical Monarchy

Season APEX 112.2Event APEX 53.66Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 345.3 ±14.1

3488Eagle Army

Season APEX 63.3Event APEX 42.37Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

2040DERT - Dunlap Eagles Robotics Team

Season APEX 192Event APEX 80.58Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4787Axiom

Season APEX 90Event APEX 36.35Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4096, 9082, 5442

/ 100 compat

Projected

172.4 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 4096, 9082, 5442

Auto

27.2 17%

Teleop

103.3 64%

Endgame

29.9 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3488, 2040, 4787

/ 100 compat

Projected

159.3 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 3488, 2040, 4787

Auto

37.9 24%

Teleop

80.4 50%

Endgame

41.2 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.75 · Blue 1.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score172.4pts

Blue projected score159.3pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 13.1
Score range: 129–202
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 279 vs event baseline 164.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

473Season APEX345.3

27.2Auto37.9

103.3Teleop80.4

29.9Endgame41.2

51Consistency119

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	36
teleop	55	100
endgame	17	63
foul	0	0
total	80	199

Result

Final score

80 – 199

Prediction missed · off by 66.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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