Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

249.64 – 93.75

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

608 – 15

Prediction correct · off by 218.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 801.4 ±11.7

6237Martin Motion

Season APEX 199.9Event APEX 1.62Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2481Roboteers

Season APEX 378Event APEX 161.65Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1756Argos

Season APEX 223.5Event APEX 86.37Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 155.8 ±14.8

2039Rockford Robotics

Season APEX 29.5Event APEX -6.12Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

8719Oakville Dynamics

Season APEX 75.2Event APEX 44.24Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6651Golden Bots

Season APEX 51.1Event APEX 55.63Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6237, 2481, 1756

/ 100 compat

Projected

249.6 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 6237, 2481, 1756

Auto

59.8 24%

Teleop

120.7 48%

Endgame

73.1 29%

Strengths

· 2481 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2039, 8719, 6651

/ 100 compat

Projected

93.8 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 2039, 8719, 6651

Auto

34.4 40%

Teleop

31.6 37%

Endgame

20.2 23%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.51 · Blue 0.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score249.6pts

Blue projected score93.8pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 155.9
Score range: 66–278
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 623 vs event baseline 155.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

801.4Season APEX155.8

59.8Auto34.4

120.7Teleop31.6

73.1Endgame20.2

43Consistency151

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	106	15
teleop	310	0
endgame	192	0
foul	0	0
total	608	15

Result

Final score

608 – 15

Prediction correct · off by 218.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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