Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

131.58 – 52.65

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

296 – 51

Prediction correct · off by 83 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 479.6 ±12.2

8096Cache Money

Season APEX 110.9Event APEX 15.91Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4143MARS/WARS

Season APEX 274.6Event APEX 109.42Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2022Titan Robotics

Season APEX 94.1Event APEX 6.25Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 222.6 ±14.5

1736Robot Casserole

Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 24.38Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

648QC ELITE Flaming Squirrels

Season APEX 91.3Event APEX 27.99Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 91

7472R2JESU Robotics

Season APEX 61.1Event APEX 0.28Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8096, 4143, 2022

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.6 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 8096, 4143, 2022

Auto

56.4 48%

Teleop

54.2 46%

Endgame

7.9 7%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1736, 648, 7472

/ 100 compat

Projected

52.7 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 1736, 648, 7472

Auto

22.9 50%

Teleop

8.7 19%

Endgame

14.6 32%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.18 · Blue 1.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score131.6pts

Blue projected score52.7pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 78.9
Score range: 25–160
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 347 vs event baseline 154.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

479.6Season APEX222.6

56.4Auto22.9

54.2Teleop8.7

7.9Endgame14.6

32Consistency149

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	19
teleop	151	20
endgame	71	7
foul	20	5
total	296	51

Result

Final score

296 – 51

Prediction correct · off by 83 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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