Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

124.38 – 176.7

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

157 – 112

Prediction missed · off by 48.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 335.8 ±13.3

5442Mechanical Monarchy

Season APEX 112.2Event APEX 3.71Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

7848WI-FIghterz

Season APEX 115.9Event APEX 60.95Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2861Infinity's End

Season APEX 107.7Event APEX 59.72Rank 5Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 531.6 ±11

7417Bionic Bombers

Season APEX 53.6Event APEX -3.81Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1625Winnovation

Season APEX 201.6Event APEX 60.32Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4096Ctrl-Z

Season APEX 276.4Event APEX 120.19Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5442, 7848, 2861

/ 100 compat

Projected

124.4 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 5442, 7848, 2861

Auto

11.4 10%

Teleop

69.2 62%

Endgame

31.7 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7417, 1625, 4096

/ 100 compat

Projected

176.7 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 7417, 1625, 4096

Auto

16.6 10%

Teleop

109.7 66%

Endgame

39.3 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.31 · Blue 1.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score124.4pts

Blue projected score176.7pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -52.3
Score range: 96–205
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 269 vs event baseline 156.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

335.8Season APEX531.6

11.4Auto16.6

69.2Teleop109.7

31.7Endgame39.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	46
teleop	89	35
endgame	49	31
foul	0	0
total	157	112

Result

Final score

157 – 112

Prediction missed · off by 48.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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