Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

6.67 – 91.01

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

69 – 231

Prediction correct · off by 101.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 369.1 ±14.9

4156Ninjaneers

Season APEX 64.5Event APEX -23.1Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

3284Camdenton LASER 3284

Season APEX 214.6Event APEX -2.55Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4787Axiom

Season APEX 90Event APEX 32.32Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 487 ±14.1

6237Martin Motion

Season APEX 199.9Event APEX -23.4Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1756Argos

Season APEX 223.5Event APEX 57.25Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4423MARS' Minions

Season APEX 63.6Event APEX 57.16Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4156, 3284, 4787

/ 100 compat

Projected

6.7 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 4156, 3284, 4787

Auto

-4.8 0%

Teleop

15.8 100%

Endgame

-3.9 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6237, 1756, 4423

/ 100 compat

Projected

91 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 6237, 1756, 4423

Auto

13.3 14%

Teleop

42.0 45%

Endgame

38.0 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.17 · Blue 2.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score6.7pts

Blue projected score91pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -84.3
Score range: -21–119
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 300 vs event baseline 156.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

369.1Season APEX487

-4.8Auto13.3

15.8Teleop42

-3.9Endgame38

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	14
teleop	31	144
endgame	2	73
foul	10	0
total	69	231

Result

Final score

69 – 231

Prediction correct · off by 101.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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