Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

109 – 198.88

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

104 – 165

Prediction correct · off by 19.4 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 262.2 ±14.4

8719Oakville Dynamics

Season APEX 75.2Event APEX 51.48Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8020CyberpunK

Season APEX 157.5Event APEX 74.29Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2039Rockford Robotics

Season APEX 29.5Event APEX -16.77Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 334.4 ±12.9

2040DERT - Dunlap Eagles Robotics Team

Season APEX 192Event APEX 77.87Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

648QC ELITE Flaming Squirrels

Season APEX 91.3Event APEX 56.17Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 91

6651Golden Bots

Season APEX 51.1Event APEX 64.84Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8719, 8020, 2039

/ 100 compat

Projected

109 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 8719, 8020, 2039

Auto

16.0 18%

Teleop

50.1 56%

Endgame

24.0 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2040, 648, 6651

/ 100 compat

Projected

198.9 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 2040, 648, 6651

Auto

51.4 25%

Teleop

96.0 47%

Endgame

58.1 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.03 · Blue 2.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score109pts

Blue projected score198.9pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -89.9
Score range: 79–229
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 269 vs event baseline 167.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

262.2Season APEX334.4

16Auto51.4

50.1Teleop96

24Endgame58.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	41
teleop	40	86
endgame	25	38
foul	5	0
total	104	165

Result

Final score

104 – 165

Prediction correct · off by 19.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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