Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

133.86 – 168.54

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

103 – 480

Prediction correct · off by 171.2 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 396.8 ±14.4

4156Ninjaneers

Season APEX 64.5Event APEX 9.28Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

4655Stateline Robotics

Season APEX 247.9Event APEX 45.55Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9082No Limit

Season APEX 84.4Event APEX 79.03Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 720.9 ±11.7

4096Ctrl-Z

Season APEX 276.4Event APEX 9.28Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4645The Chicago Style BotDogs

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 73.35Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 94

2481Roboteers

Season APEX 378Event APEX 85.91Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4156, 4655, 9082

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.9 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 4156, 4655, 9082

Auto

19.2 16%

Teleop

73.7 61%

Endgame

28.5 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4096, 4645, 2481

/ 100 compat

Projected

168.5 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 4096, 4645, 2481

Auto

58.1 35%

Teleop

80.8 49%

Endgame

26.8 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.46 · Blue 1.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score133.9pts

Blue projected score168.5pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -34.7
Score range: 106–197
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 583 vs event baseline 154.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

396.8Season APEX720.9

19.2Auto58.1

73.7Teleop80.8

28.5Endgame26.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	1	102
teleop	90	258
endgame	12	120
foul	0	0
total	103	480

Result

Final score

103 – 480

Prediction correct · off by 171.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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