Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

87.03 – 47.32

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

139 – 105

Prediction correct · off by 54.8 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 329.2 ±12.8

1625Winnovation

Season APEX 201.6Event APEX 45.72Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3067Robovikes

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 36.87Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7472R2JESU Robotics

Season APEX 61.1Event APEX 4.44Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 211.3 ±14.6

2022Titan Robotics

Season APEX 94.1Event APEX -0.25Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

4423MARS' Minions

Season APEX 63.6Event APEX 45.72Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 80

7417Bionic Bombers

Season APEX 53.6Event APEX 1.85Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1625, 3067, 7472

/ 100 compat

Projected

87 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 1625, 3067, 7472

Auto

31.5 42%

Teleop

45.6 61%

Endgame

-2.3 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2022, 4423, 7417

/ 100 compat

Projected

47.3 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 2022, 4423, 7417

Auto

4.8 14%

Teleop

34.6 98%

Endgame

-4.0 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.98 · Blue 1.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score87pts

Blue projected score47.3pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 39.7
Score range: 19–115
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 244 vs event baseline 158.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

329.2Season APEX211.3

31.5Auto4.8

45.6Teleop34.6

-2.3Endgame-4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	21
teleop	76	55
endgame	44	29
foul	0	0
total	139	105

Result

Final score

139 – 105

Prediction correct · off by 54.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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