Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

116.14 – 221.48

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

66 – 183

Prediction correct · off by 44.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 295.9 ±15.8

2039Rockford Robotics

Season APEX 29.5Event APEX 3.27Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 76

6237Martin Motion

Season APEX 199.9Event APEX 78.4Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4645The Chicago Style BotDogs

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 34.47Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 370.5 ±12.2

2022Titan Robotics

Season APEX 94.1Event APEX 46.83Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

2040DERT - Dunlap Eagles Robotics Team

Season APEX 192Event APEX 107Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9082No Limit

Season APEX 84.4Event APEX 67.65Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2039, 6237, 4645

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.1 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 2039, 6237, 4645

Auto

9.5 8%

Teleop

58.8 51%

Endgame

46.8 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2022, 2040, 9082

/ 100 compat

Projected

221.5 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 2022, 2040, 9082

Auto

34.2 16%

Teleop

127.9 58%

Endgame

56.7 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.05 · Blue 2.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score116.1pts

Blue projected score221.5pts

Red win probability21%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -105.3
Score range: 81–256
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 249 vs event baseline 192.7.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

295.9Season APEX370.5

9.5Auto34.2

58.8Teleop127.9

46.8Endgame56.7

1Consistency46

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	41
teleop	31	96
endgame	28	41
foul	0	5
total	66	183

Result

Final score

66 – 183

Prediction correct · off by 44.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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