Final · Finals 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

272.25 – 424.72

13%87%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

370 – 288

Prediction missed · off by 117.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 541.8 ±11

4143MARS/WARS

Season APEX 274.6Event APEX 168.6Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2040DERT - Dunlap Eagles Robotics Team

Season APEX 192Event APEX 104.62Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8719Oakville Dynamics

Season APEX 75.2Event APEX -0.97Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 662.6 ±11.7

7472R2JESU Robotics

Season APEX 61.1Event APEX 13.49Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2481Roboteers

Season APEX 378Event APEX 266.14Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1756Argos

Season APEX 223.5Event APEX 145.09Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4143, 2040, 8719

/ 100 compat

Projected

272.3 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 4143, 2040, 8719

Auto

60.6 23%

Teleop

146.8 55%

Endgame

60.8 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7472, 2481, 1756

/ 100 compat

Projected

424.7 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 7472, 2481, 1756

Auto

93.5 22%

Teleop

237.5 56%

Endgame

92.2 22%

Strengths

· 2481 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.85 · Blue 2.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score272.3pts

Blue projected score424.7pts

Red win probability13%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -152.5
Score range: 238–459
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 658 vs event baseline 190.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

541.8Season APEX662.6

60.6Auto93.5

146.8Teleop237.5

60.8Endgame92.2

45Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	60	91
teleop	214	171
endgame	86	26
foul	10	0
total	370	288

Result

Final score

370 – 288

Prediction missed · off by 117.2 pts

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