Final · Finals 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

255.34 – 423.03

11%89%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

403 – 359

Prediction missed · off by 105.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 541.8 ±11

4143MARS/WARS

Season APEX 274.6Event APEX 163.36Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2040DERT - Dunlap Eagles Robotics Team

Season APEX 192Event APEX 99.04Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8719Oakville Dynamics

Season APEX 75.2Event APEX -7.06Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 655.1 ±11

7417Bionic Bombers

Season APEX 53.6Event APEX 8.36Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2481Roboteers

Season APEX 378Event APEX 267.15Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1756Argos

Season APEX 223.5Event APEX 147.52Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4143, 2040, 8719

/ 100 compat

Projected

255.3 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 4143, 2040, 8719

Auto

59.0 23%

Teleop

137.6 55%

Endgame

54.8 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7417, 2481, 1756

/ 100 compat

Projected

423 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 7417, 2481, 1756

Auto

93.0 22%

Teleop

235.9 57%

Endgame

85.1 21%

Strengths

· 2481 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.81 · Blue 2.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score255.3pts

Blue projected score423pts

Red win probability11%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -167.7
Score range: 221–457
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 762 vs event baseline 188.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

541.8Season APEX655.1

59Auto93

137.6Teleop235.9

54.8Endgame85.1

87Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	73	116
teleop	218	199
endgame	107	44
foul	5	0
total	403	359

Result

Final score

403 – 359

Prediction missed · off by 105.8 pts

Match videos

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