Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

433.22 – 225.79

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

497 – 140

Prediction correct · off by 74.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 591 ±13.1

3488Eagle Army

Season APEX 63.3Event APEX 6.24Rank 20Record 1-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

4096Ctrl-Z

Season APEX 276.4Event APEX 219Rank 1Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2338Gear It Forward

Season APEX 251.3Event APEX 207.98Rank 5Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 298.2 ±12.1

112Plus One

Season APEX 90.2Event APEX 140.83Rank 8Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8880Terra Cyborg

Season APEX 97.1Event APEX -0.78Rank 18Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8096Cache Money

Season APEX 110.9Event APEX 85.74Rank 6Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3488, 4096, 2338

/ 100 compat

Projected

433.2 pts

~2.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3488, 4096, 2338

Auto

74.7 17%

Teleop

243.1 56%

Endgame

113.5 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 112, 8880, 8096

/ 100 compat

Projected

225.8 pts

~0.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 112, 8880, 8096

Auto

34.9 16%

Teleop

136.2 62%

Endgame

50.1 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.41 · Blue 0.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score433.2pts

Blue projected score225.8pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample76alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 207.4
Score range: 179–480
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 637 vs event baseline 262.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

591Season APEX298.2

74.7Auto34.9

243.1Teleop136.2

113.5Endgame50.1

27Consistency23

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	122	27
teleop	244	79
endgame	131	19
foul	0	15
total	497	140

Result

Final score

497 – 140

Prediction correct · off by 74.8 pts