Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

6.87 – 177.24

11%89%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

9 – 126

Prediction correct · off by 26.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

9998Off-Season Demo Team 9998

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 2.29Rank -Record -Status preseasonConfidence 0

9999Off-Season Demo Team 9999

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 2.29Rank -Record -Status preseasonConfidence 0

9997Off-Season Demo Team 9997

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 2.29Rank -Record -Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 308.9 ±15.1

2290FLYT

Season APEX 97.9Event APEX 15.48Rank 15Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2358Bearbotics

Season APEX 99Event APEX 90.28Rank 9Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5934Crowbotics

Season APEX 112Event APEX 71.48Rank 13Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 82

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9998, 9999, 9997

/ 100 compat

Projected

6.9 pts

~0.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9998, 9999, 9997

Auto

0.9 13%

Teleop

6.0 87%

Endgame

0.0 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2290, 2358, 5934

/ 100 compat

Projected

177.2 pts

~2.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2290, 2358, 5934

Auto

22.1 13%

Teleop

109.5 62%

Endgame

44.4 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.59 · Blue 2.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score6.9pts

Blue projected score177.2pts

Red win probability11%

Event bonus sample76alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 23%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -170.4
Score range: -42–226
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 135 vs event baseline 274.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

0Season APEX308.9

0.9Auto22.1

6Teleop109.5

0Endgame44.4

0Consistency39

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	1	18
teleop	8	75
endgame	0	33
foul	0	0
total	9	126

Result

Final score

9 – 126

Prediction correct · off by 26.7 pts