Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

346.06 – 220.65

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

422 – 111

Prediction correct · off by 92.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 406.1 ±12.2

8122Mechanical Mustaches

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX 5.16Rank 22Record 1-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3061Huskie Robotics

Season APEX 205.2Event APEX 180.01Rank 4Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10435IRS - Intelligent Robotic Systems

Season APEX 139.3Event APEX 160.89Rank 2Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 374 ±13.9

2704Roaring Robotics

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 47.51Rank 16Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11173STAR FORCE

Season APEX 126.3Event APEX 94.09Rank 14Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

5822WolfByte

Season APEX 83.6Event APEX 79.05Rank 11Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8122, 3061, 10435

/ 100 compat

Projected

346.1 pts

~2.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 8122, 3061, 10435

Auto

67.4 20%

Teleop

192.1 56%

Endgame

84.3 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2704, 11173, 5822

/ 100 compat

Projected

220.7 pts

~0.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2704, 11173, 5822

Auto

32.2 15%

Teleop

129.6 59%

Endgame

59.4 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.06 · Blue 0.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score346.1pts

Blue projected score220.7pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample76alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 125.4
Score range: 171–396
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 533 vs event baseline 275.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

406.1Season APEX374

67.4Auto32.2

192.1Teleop129.6

84.3Endgame59.4

92Consistency7

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	71	27
teleop	232	56
endgame	119	28
foul	0	0
total	422	111

Result

Final score

422 – 111

Prediction correct · off by 92.8 pts