Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

213.74 – 219.79

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

94 – 409

Prediction correct · off by 154.5 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 277.9 ±13.9

8122Mechanical Mustaches

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX 39.01Rank 22Record 1-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4787Axiom

Season APEX 90Event APEX 1.23Rank 17Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11173STAR FORCE

Season APEX 126.3Event APEX 173.5Rank 14Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 487.7 ±12.2

2338Gear It Forward

Season APEX 251.3Event APEX 150.81Rank 5Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10435IRS - Intelligent Robotic Systems

Season APEX 139.3Event APEX 47.22Rank 2Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8880Terra Cyborg

Season APEX 97.1Event APEX 21.76Rank 18Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8122, 4787, 11173

/ 100 compat

Projected

213.7 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 8122, 4787, 11173

Auto

38.7 18%

Teleop

114.5 54%

Endgame

60.0 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2338, 10435, 8880

/ 100 compat

Projected

219.8 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2338, 10435, 8880

Auto

52.9 24%

Teleop

118.2 54%

Endgame

48.4 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.33 · Blue 1.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score213.7pts

Blue projected score219.8pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample76alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 22%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 21%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -6
Score range: 167–267
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 503 vs event baseline 263.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

277.9Season APEX487.7

38.7Auto52.9

114.5Teleop118.2

60Endgame48.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	56
teleop	53	246
endgame	28	107
foul	0	0
total	94	409

Result

Final score

94 – 409

Prediction correct · off by 154.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree