Qualification · Qualification 7

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

239.33 – 225.11

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

250 – 279

Prediction missed · off by 32.3 points

Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 402.2 ±14.1

111WildStang

Season APEX 241Event APEX 153.65Rank 7Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2290FLYT

Season APEX 97.9Event APEX 24.47Rank 15Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3488Eagle Army

Season APEX 63.3Event APEX 61.21Rank 20Record 1-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 503.2 ±12.2

7848WI-FIghterz

Season APEX 115.9Event APEX 43.23Rank 10Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4096Ctrl-Z

Season APEX 276.4Event APEX 167.57Rank 1Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8096Cache Money

Season APEX 110.9Event APEX 14.31Rank 6Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 111, 2290, 3488

/ 100 compat

Projected

239.3 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 111, 2290, 3488

Auto

51.7 22%

Teleop

133.1 56%

Endgame

54.8 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7848, 4096, 8096

/ 100 compat

Projected

225.1 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 7848, 4096, 8096

Auto

42.9 19%

Teleop

128.3 57%

Endgame

54.2 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.58 · Blue 1.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score239.3pts

Blue projected score225.1pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample76alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 20%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 14.2
Score range: 178–286
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 529 vs event baseline 262.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

402.2Season APEX503.2

51.7Auto42.9

133.1Teleop128.3

54.8Endgame54.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	38
teleop	171	158
endgame	27	83
foul	0	0
total	250	279

Result

Final score

250 – 279

Prediction missed · off by 32.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree