Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

110.09 – 484.67

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

171 – 558

Prediction correct · off by 67.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 258.5 ±13.3

2358Bearbotics

Season APEX 99Event APEX 88.93Rank 9Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8122Mechanical Mustaches

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX 3.04Rank 22Record 1-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2290FLYT

Season APEX 97.9Event APEX 18.12Rank 15Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 607.9 ±11.7

4655Stateline Robotics

Season APEX 247.9Event APEX 209.16Rank 3Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5822WolfByte

Season APEX 83.6Event APEX 63.68Rank 11Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

4096Ctrl-Z

Season APEX 276.4Event APEX 211.83Rank 1Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2358, 8122, 2290

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.1 pts

~0.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2358, 8122, 2290

Auto

0.9 1%

Teleop

69.1 65%

Endgame

37.1 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4655, 5822, 4096

/ 100 compat

Projected

484.7 pts

~2.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4655, 5822, 4096

Auto

100.6 21%

Teleop

272.3 57%

Endgame

107.7 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.4 · Blue 2.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score110.1pts

Blue projected score484.7pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample76alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 23%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 31%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -374.6
Score range: 60–535
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 729 vs event baseline 276.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

258.5Season APEX607.9

0.9Auto100.6

69.1Teleop272.3

37.1Endgame107.7

47Consistency64

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	106
teleop	106	328
endgame	55	124
foul	0	0
total	171	558

Result

Final score

171 – 558

Prediction correct · off by 67.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree