Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

282.96 – 252.03

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

158 – 260

Prediction missed · off by 66.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 411.5 ±12.2

4213MetalCow Robotics

Season APEX 98.6Event APEX 33.55Rank 19Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2338Gear It Forward

Season APEX 251.3Event APEX 230.02Rank 5Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8122Mechanical Mustaches

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX 19.39Rank 22Record 1-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 299 ±12.7

8096Cache Money

Season APEX 110.9Event APEX 69.22Rank 6Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

112Plus One

Season APEX 90.2Event APEX 150.45Rank 8Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2290FLYT

Season APEX 97.9Event APEX 32.36Rank 15Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4213, 2338, 8122

/ 100 compat

Projected

283 pts

~1.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4213, 2338, 8122

Auto

43.7 16%

Teleop

154.7 56%

Endgame

76.3 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8096, 112, 2290

/ 100 compat

Projected

252 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 8096, 112, 2290

Auto

21.1 9%

Teleop

153.8 64%

Endgame

65.7 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.52 · Blue 1.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score283pts

Blue projected score252pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample76alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 19%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 30.9
Score range: 201–334
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 418 vs event baseline 282.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

411.5Season APEX299

43.7Auto21.1

154.7Teleop153.8

76.3Endgame65.7

114Consistency25

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	8
teleop	82	161
endgame	52	91
foul	15	0
total	158	260

Result

Final score

158 – 260

Prediction missed · off by 66.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree