Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

257.07 – 312.47

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

179 – 273

Prediction correct · off by 58.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 502 ±12.2

2704Roaring Robotics

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 31.43Rank 16Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4655Stateline Robotics

Season APEX 247.9Event APEX 209.16Rank 3Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4787Axiom

Season APEX 90Event APEX 16.48Rank 17Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 358.7 ±13.6

112Plus One

Season APEX 90.2Event APEX 138.99Rank 8Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3061Huskie Robotics

Season APEX 205.2Event APEX 175Rank 4Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3488Eagle Army

Season APEX 63.3Event APEX -1.52Rank 20Record 1-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2704, 4655, 4787

/ 100 compat

Projected

257.1 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2704, 4655, 4787

Auto

55.0 22%

Teleop

154.7 61%

Endgame

45.6 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 112, 3061, 3488

/ 100 compat

Projected

312.5 pts

~1.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 112, 3061, 3488

Auto

67.5 21%

Teleop

170.8 54%

Endgame

76.0 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.22 · Blue 1.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score257.1pts

Blue projected score312.5pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample76alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -55.4
Score range: 207–362
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 452 vs event baseline 276.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

502Season APEX358.7

55Auto67.5

154.7Teleop170.8

45.6Endgame76

71Consistency46

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	64	72
teleop	101	154
endgame	14	47
foul	0	0
total	179	273

Result

Final score

179 – 273

Prediction correct · off by 58.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree