Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

169.98 – 79.57

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

74 – 182

Prediction missed · off by 99.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 260.9 ±15.1

3488Eagle Army

Season APEX 63.3Event APEX -1.94Rank 20Record 1-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

4213MetalCow Robotics

Season APEX 98.6Event APEX 43.84Rank 19Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2358Bearbotics

Season APEX 99Event APEX 128.08Rank 9Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 265.8 ±13.9

1781Lindblom Electric Eagles

Season APEX 88.3Event APEX 40.81Rank 12Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 92

8122Mechanical Mustaches

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX -3.56Rank 22Record 1-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7848WI-FIghterz

Season APEX 115.9Event APEX 42.32Rank 10Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3488, 4213, 2358

/ 100 compat

Projected

170 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3488, 4213, 2358

Auto

20.7 13%

Teleop

122.5 75%

Endgame

20.4 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1781, 8122, 7848

/ 100 compat

Projected

79.6 pts

~0.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1781, 8122, 7848

Auto

30.8 38%

Teleop

21.5 27%

Endgame

28.4 35%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.89 · Blue 0.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score170pts

Blue projected score79.6pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample76alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 26%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 90.4
Score range: 27–223
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 256 vs event baseline 293.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

260.9Season APEX265.8

20.7Auto30.8

122.5Teleop21.5

20.4Endgame28.4

138Consistency186

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	15
teleop	34	105
endgame	27	47
foul	0	15
total	74	182

Result

Final score

74 – 182

Prediction missed · off by 99.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree