Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

191.34 – 147.41

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

177 – 221

Prediction missed · off by 44 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 389 ±13.9

11173STAR FORCE

Season APEX 126.3Event APEX 120.78Rank 14Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2704Roaring Robotics

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 29.52Rank 16Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4213MetalCow Robotics

Season APEX 98.6Event APEX 41.04Rank 19Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 299.9 ±13.3

4787Axiom

Season APEX 90Event APEX -22.33Rank 17Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2358Bearbotics

Season APEX 99Event APEX 115.07Rank 9Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8096Cache Money

Season APEX 110.9Event APEX 54.67Rank 6Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11173, 2704, 4213

/ 100 compat

Projected

191.3 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 11173, 2704, 4213

Auto

35.0 19%

Teleop

118.8 65%

Endgame

30.3 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4787, 2358, 8096

/ 100 compat

Projected

147.4 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4787, 2358, 8096

Auto

0.8 1%

Teleop

100.7 69%

Endgame

45.0 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.72 · Blue 1.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score191.3pts

Blue projected score147.4pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample76alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 43.9
Score range: 96–242
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 398 vs event baseline 285.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

389Season APEX299.9

35Auto0.8

118.8Teleop100.7

30.3Endgame45

19Consistency91

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	16
teleop	94	128
endgame	53	62
foul	0	15
total	177	221

Result

Final score

177 – 221

Prediction missed · off by 44 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree