Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

410.94 – 308.29

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

257 – 409

Prediction missed · off by 127.3 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 402.9 ±14.7

3488Eagle Army

Season APEX 63.3Event APEX 40.48Rank 20Record 1-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

1781Lindblom Electric Eagles

Season APEX 88.3Event APEX 106.49Rank 12Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 92

2338Gear It Forward

Season APEX 251.3Event APEX 263.97Rank 5Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 485.1 ±12.8

2290FLYT

Season APEX 97.9Event APEX 44.67Rank 15Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10435IRS - Intelligent Robotic Systems

Season APEX 139.3Event APEX 50.46Rank 2Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4655Stateline Robotics

Season APEX 247.9Event APEX 213.16Rank 3Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3488, 1781, 2338

/ 100 compat

Projected

410.9 pts

~2.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3488, 1781, 2338

Auto

59.5 15%

Teleop

221.7 55%

Endgame

124.9 31%

Strengths

· 2338 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2290, 10435, 4655

/ 100 compat

Projected

308.3 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2290, 10435, 4655

Auto

55.6 18%

Teleop

191.2 63%

Endgame

58.0 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.08 · Blue 1.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score410.9pts

Blue projected score308.3pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample76alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 102.6
Score range: 257–462
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 666 vs event baseline 283.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

402.9Season APEX485.1

59.5Auto55.6

221.7Teleop191.2

124.9Endgame58

211Consistency87

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	84
teleop	133	241
endgame	67	84
foul	0	0
total	257	409

Result

Final score

257 – 409

Prediction missed · off by 127.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree