Final · Finals 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

434.06 – 423.85

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

289 – 313

Prediction missed · off by 128 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 591 ±13.1

3488Eagle Army

Season APEX 63.3Event APEX 3.64Rank 20Record 1-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

4096Ctrl-Z

Season APEX 276.4Event APEX 218.29Rank 1Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2338Gear It Forward

Season APEX 251.3Event APEX 212.13Rank 5Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 555.4 ±11.7

3067Robovikes

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 25.97Rank 21Record 0-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4655Stateline Robotics

Season APEX 247.9Event APEX 214.01Rank 3Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

111WildStang

Season APEX 241Event APEX 183.87Rank 7Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3488, 4096, 2338

/ 100 compat

Projected

434.1 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3488, 4096, 2338

Auto

95.3 22%

Teleop

235.7 54%

Endgame

101.6 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3067, 4655, 111

/ 100 compat

Projected

423.9 pts

~1.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3067, 4655, 111

Auto

90.9 21%

Teleop

243.1 57%

Endgame

89.8 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.61 · Blue 1.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score434.1pts

Blue projected score423.9pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample76alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 21%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 10.2
Score range: 374–484
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 602 vs event baseline 276.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

591Season APEX555.4

95.3Auto90.9

235.7Teleop243.1

101.6Endgame89.8

56Consistency88

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	101	87
teleop	188	131
endgame	0	75
foul	0	20
total	289	313

Result

Final score

289 – 313

Prediction missed · off by 128 pts