Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

438.18 – 426.66

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

440 – 441

Prediction missed · off by 8.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 591 ±13.1

3488Eagle Army

Season APEX 63.3Event APEX 4.83Rank 20Record 1-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

4096Ctrl-Z

Season APEX 276.4Event APEX 219.77Rank 1Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2338Gear It Forward

Season APEX 251.3Event APEX 213.58Rank 5Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 555.4 ±11.7

3067Robovikes

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 27.02Rank 21Record 0-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4655Stateline Robotics

Season APEX 247.9Event APEX 215.19Rank 3Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

111WildStang

Season APEX 241Event APEX 184.45Rank 7Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3488, 4096, 2338

/ 100 compat

Projected

438.2 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3488, 4096, 2338

Auto

91.6 21%

Teleop

236.0 54%

Endgame

108.4 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3067, 4655, 111

/ 100 compat

Projected

426.7 pts

~1.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3067, 4655, 111

Auto

96.8 23%

Teleop

248.3 58%

Endgame

81.6 19%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.62 · Blue 1.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score438.2pts

Blue projected score426.7pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample76alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 21%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 11.5
Score range: 379–486
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 881 vs event baseline 267.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

591Season APEX555.4

91.6Auto96.8

236Teleop248.3

108.4Endgame81.6

37Consistency72

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	103	92
teleop	228	228
endgame	109	121
foul	0	0
total	440	441

Result

Final score

440 – 441

Prediction missed · off by 8.1 pts