Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

441.49 – 184.07

96%4%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

464 – 280

Prediction correct · off by 59.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 551.2 ±11

5847Ironclad

Season APEX 248.6Event APEX 225.39Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8122Mechanical Mustaches

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX 23.12Rank 34Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

111WildStang

Season APEX 241Event APEX 192.98Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 385.7 ±13.6

3734StarBots

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 20.96Rank 23Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

8096Cache Money

Season APEX 110.9Event APEX 88.21Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3061Huskie Robotics

Season APEX 205.2Event APEX 74.9Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5847, 8122, 111

/ 100 compat

Projected

441.5 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 5847, 8122, 111

Auto

82.0 19%

Teleop

264.1 60%

Endgame

91.2 21%

Strengths

· 5847 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3734, 8096, 3061

/ 100 compat

Projected

184.1 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 3734, 8096, 3061

Auto

42.2 24%

Teleop

100.1 57%

Endgame

33.7 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.48 · Blue 0.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score441.5pts

Blue projected score184.1pts

Red win probability96%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 257.4
Score range: 153–472
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 744 vs event baseline 171.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

551.2Season APEX385.7

82Auto42.2

264.1Teleop100.1

91.2Endgame33.7

0Consistency87

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	60	58
teleop	300	133
endgame	104	84
foul	0	5
total	464	280

Result

Final score

464 – 280

Prediction correct · off by 59.2 pts

Match videos

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