Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

153.67 – 162.31

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

106 – 148

Prediction correct · off by 31 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 349.5 ±13.3

9280PrepaTec - High Altitude Robotics

Season APEX 46.1Event APEX 13.26Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2704Roaring Robotics

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 41.05Rank 21Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10435IRS - Intelligent Robotic Systems

Season APEX 139.3Event APEX 99.36Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 262.6 ±13.3

2358Bearbotics

Season APEX 99Event APEX 61.44Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3067Robovikes

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 37.47Rank 29Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8880Terra Cyborg

Season APEX 97.1Event APEX 63.4Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9280, 2704, 10435

/ 100 compat

Projected

153.7 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 9280, 2704, 10435

Auto

33.8 23%

Teleop

81.4 54%

Endgame

35.0 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2358, 3067, 8880

/ 100 compat

Projected

162.3 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 2358, 3067, 8880

Auto

21.2 14%

Teleop

93.5 60%

Endgame

40.4 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.63 · Blue 1.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score153.7pts

Blue projected score162.3pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -8.6
Score range: 123–193
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 254 vs event baseline 172.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

349.5Season APEX262.6

33.8Auto21.2

81.4Teleop93.5

35Endgame40.4

28Consistency68

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	22
teleop	56	107
endgame	26	19
foul	5	0
total	106	148

Result

Final score

106 – 148

Prediction correct · off by 31 pts

Match videos

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