Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

222.55 – 171.84

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

293 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 55.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 547.5 ±10.5

8029Steel Bronco Robotics

Season APEX 75.6Event APEX 23.45Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

48Team E.L.I.T.E.

Season APEX 220.6Event APEX 103.15Rank 13Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2338Gear It Forward

Season APEX 251.3Event APEX 95.95Rank 4Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 262.6 ±13.3

8880Terra Cyborg

Season APEX 97.1Event APEX 66.6Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3067Robovikes

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 40.01Rank 29Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2358Bearbotics

Season APEX 99Event APEX 65.23Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8029, 48, 2338

/ 100 compat

Projected

222.6 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 8029, 48, 2338

Auto

49.2 22%

Teleop

126.1 56%

Endgame

49.8 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8880, 3067, 2358

/ 100 compat

Projected

171.8 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 8880, 3067, 2358

Auto

22.3 14%

Teleop

98.8 60%

Endgame

42.6 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.89 · Blue 1.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score222.6pts

Blue projected score171.8pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 50.7
Score range: 141–254
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 425 vs event baseline 172.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

547.5Season APEX262.6

49.2Auto22.3

126.1Teleop98.8

49.8Endgame42.6

0Consistency65

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	76	19
teleop	141	75
endgame	71	33
foul	5	5
total	293	132

Result

Final score

293 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 55.1 pts

Match videos

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