Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

231.21 – 172.75

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

239 – 93

Prediction correct · off by 43.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 315.7 ±15.4

7201Crobotics

Season APEX 46.2Event APEX 24.62Rank 30Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 80

5934Crowbotics

Season APEX 112Event APEX 126.81Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 82

8020CyberpunK

Season APEX 157.5Event APEX 79.78Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 349.5 ±13.3

9280PrepaTec - High Altitude Robotics

Season APEX 46.1Event APEX 18.45Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2704Roaring Robotics

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 47.73Rank 21Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10435IRS - Intelligent Robotic Systems

Season APEX 139.3Event APEX 106.57Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7201, 5934, 8020

/ 100 compat

Projected

231.2 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 7201, 5934, 8020

Auto

61.7 28%

Teleop

110.6 51%

Endgame

45.4 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9280, 2704, 10435

/ 100 compat

Projected

172.8 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 9280, 2704, 10435

Auto

32.8 19%

Teleop

93.8 55%

Endgame

43.2 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.9 · Blue 1.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score231.2pts

Blue projected score172.8pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 58.5
Score range: 142–262
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 332 vs event baseline 172.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

315.7Season APEX349.5

61.7Auto32.8

110.6Teleop93.8

45.4Endgame43.2

5Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	58	38
teleop	125	41
endgame	51	9
foul	5	5
total	239	93

Result

Final score

239 – 93

Prediction correct · off by 43.8 pts

Match videos

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