Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

414.37 – 150.6

96%4%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

517 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 60.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 551.2 ±11

5847Ironclad

Season APEX 248.6Event APEX 216.59Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8122Mechanical Mustaches

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX 12.35Rank 34Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

111WildStang

Season APEX 241Event APEX 185.43Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 261.9 ±14.5

1781Lindblom Electric Eagles

Season APEX 88.3Event APEX 59.38Rank 17Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

4787Axiom

Season APEX 90Event APEX 53.08Rank 27Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5822WolfByte

Season APEX 83.6Event APEX 38.14Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5847, 8122, 111

/ 100 compat

Projected

414.4 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 5847, 8122, 111

Auto

80.3 20%

Teleop

247.2 61%

Endgame

80.6 20%

Strengths

· 5847 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1781, 4787, 5822

/ 100 compat

Projected

150.6 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 1781, 4787, 5822

Auto

28.4 20%

Teleop

80.1 58%

Endgame

30.1 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.49 · Blue 0.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score414.4pts

Blue projected score150.6pts

Red win probability96%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 263.8
Score range: 120–445
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 649 vs event baseline 169.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

551.2Season APEX261.9

80.3Auto28.4

247.2Teleop80.1

80.6Endgame30.1

5Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	85	20
teleop	312	61
endgame	120	46
foul	0	5
total	517	132

Result

Final score

517 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 60.6 pts

Match videos

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