Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

427.89 – 220.93

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

448 – 213

Prediction correct · off by 14 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 551.2 ±11

5847Ironclad

Season APEX 248.6Event APEX 219.24Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8122Mechanical Mustaches

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX 20.71Rank 34Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

111WildStang

Season APEX 241Event APEX 187.94Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 315.7 ±15.4

7201Crobotics

Season APEX 46.2Event APEX 23.63Rank 30Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 80

5934Crowbotics

Season APEX 112Event APEX 123.13Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 82

8020CyberpunK

Season APEX 157.5Event APEX 74.17Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5847, 8122, 111

/ 100 compat

Projected

427.9 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 5847, 8122, 111

Auto

78.9 19%

Teleop

257.3 61%

Endgame

88.2 21%

Strengths

· 5847 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7201, 5934, 8020

/ 100 compat

Projected

220.9 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 7201, 5934, 8020

Auto

59.0 29%

Teleop

103.5 50%

Endgame

43.9 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.42 · Blue 0.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score427.9pts

Blue projected score220.9pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 207
Score range: 189–460
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 661 vs event baseline 177.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

551.2Season APEX315.7

78.9Auto59

257.3Teleop103.5

88.2Endgame43.9

0Consistency32

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	103	63
teleop	230	73
endgame	115	72
foul	0	5
total	448	213

Result

Final score

448 – 213

Prediction correct · off by 14 pts

Match videos

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