Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

223.28 – 211.53

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

206 – 182

Prediction correct · off by 23.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 315.7 ±15.4

7201Crobotics

Season APEX 46.2Event APEX 24.48Rank 30Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 80

5934Crowbotics

Season APEX 112Event APEX 123.9Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 82

8020CyberpunK

Season APEX 157.5Event APEX 74.9Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 385.7 ±13.6

3734StarBots

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 29.42Rank 23Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

8096Cache Money

Season APEX 110.9Event APEX 98.64Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3061Huskie Robotics

Season APEX 205.2Event APEX 83.47Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7201, 5934, 8020

/ 100 compat

Projected

223.3 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 7201, 5934, 8020

Auto

59.9 29%

Teleop

105.1 51%

Endgame

43.0 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3734, 8096, 3061

/ 100 compat

Projected

211.5 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 3734, 8096, 3061

Auto

47.0 24%

Teleop

108.0 54%

Endgame

43.4 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.62 · Blue 1.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score223.3pts

Blue projected score211.5pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 11.8
Score range: 180–255
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 388 vs event baseline 177.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

315.7Season APEX385.7

59.9Auto47

105.1Teleop108

43Endgame43.4

26Consistency75

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	54
teleop	93	76
endgame	49	37
foul	10	15
total	206	182

Result

Final score

206 – 182

Prediction correct · off by 23.4 pts

Match videos

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