Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

447.69 – 254.16

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

324 – 345

Prediction missed · off by 107.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 551.2 ±11

5847Ironclad

Season APEX 248.6Event APEX 226.81Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8122Mechanical Mustaches

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX 26.71Rank 34Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

111WildStang

Season APEX 241Event APEX 194.17Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 547.5 ±10.5

8029Steel Bronco Robotics

Season APEX 75.6Event APEX 36.1Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

48Team E.L.I.T.E.

Season APEX 220.6Event APEX 112.93Rank 13Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2338Gear It Forward

Season APEX 251.3Event APEX 105.13Rank 4Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5847, 8122, 111

/ 100 compat

Projected

447.7 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 5847, 8122, 111

Auto

78.2 18%

Teleop

272.3 61%

Endgame

93.9 21%

Strengths

· 5847 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8029, 48, 2338

/ 100 compat

Projected

254.2 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 8029, 48, 2338

Auto

54.5 21%

Teleop

137.4 54%

Endgame

63.8 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.39 · Blue 0.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score447.7pts

Blue projected score254.2pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 193.5
Score range: 222–480
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 669 vs event baseline 175.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

551.2Season APEX547.5

78.2Auto54.5

272.3Teleop137.4

93.9Endgame63.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	82	51
teleop	178	185
endgame	59	89
foul	5	20
total	324	345

Result

Final score

324 – 345

Prediction missed · off by 107.3 pts

Match videos

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