Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

61.14 – 68.09

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

129 – 14

Prediction missed · off by 61 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 318.7 ±16.7

3061Huskie Robotics

Season APEX 205.2Event APEX 11.32Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3734StarBots

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 8.86Rank 23Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

4863The Chicago Style BotPups

Provisional

Season APEX 43.9Event APEX 40.96Rank 25Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 192.1 ±16

2151PMSA Monty Pythons

Provisional

Season APEX 32.6Event APEX 0.49Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2290FLYT

Season APEX 97.9Event APEX 64.86Rank 10Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8122Mechanical Mustaches

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX 2.74Rank 34Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3061, 3734, 4863

/ 100 compat

Projected

61.1 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 3061, 3734, 4863

Auto

6.7 11%

Teleop

36.7 63%

Endgame

15.2 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2151, 2290, 8122

/ 100 compat

Projected

68.1 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 2151, 2290, 8122

Auto

18.0 26%

Teleop

27.3 40%

Endgame

23.5 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.56 · Blue 1.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score61.1pts

Blue projected score68.1pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -7
Score range: 32–97
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 143 vs event baseline 163.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

318.7Season APEX192.1

6.7Auto18

36.7Teleop27.3

15.2Endgame23.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	9
teleop	70	3
endgame	44	2
foul	0	0
total	129	14

Result

Final score

129 – 14

Prediction missed · off by 61 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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