Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

123.87 – 168.15

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

130 – 91

Prediction missed · off by 41.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 247.5 ±13.9

1781Lindblom Electric Eagles

Season APEX 88.3Event APEX 57.16Rank 17Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

5822WolfByte

Season APEX 83.6Event APEX 42.25Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

8029Steel Bronco Robotics

Season APEX 75.6Event APEX 24.46Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 323.9 ±14.1

112Plus One

Season APEX 90.2Event APEX 78.63Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2704Roaring Robotics

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 62.25Rank 21Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3734StarBots

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 27.27Rank 23Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1781, 5822, 8029

/ 100 compat

Projected

123.9 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 1781, 5822, 8029

Auto

22.3 20%

Teleop

56.7 52%

Endgame

29.9 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 112, 2704, 3734

/ 100 compat

Projected

168.2 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 112, 2704, 3734

Auto

19.3 12%

Teleop

91.3 56%

Endgame

53.1 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.27 · Blue 1.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score123.9pts

Blue projected score168.2pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -44.3
Score range: 93–199
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 221 vs event baseline 171.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

247.5Season APEX323.9

22.3Auto19.3

56.7Teleop91.3

29.9Endgame53.1

32Consistency69

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	23
teleop	80	34
endgame	9	34
foul	0	0
total	130	91

Result

Final score

130 – 91

Prediction missed · off by 41.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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