Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

147.11 – 321.16

10%90%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

178 – 303

Prediction correct · off by 24.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 381 ±15.1

8880Terra Cyborg

Season APEX 97.1Event APEX 58.71Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2151PMSA Monty Pythons

Provisional

Season APEX 32.6Event APEX 4.49Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2338Gear It Forward

Season APEX 251.3Event APEX 83.91Rank 4Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 414.6 ±13.6

5934Crowbotics

Season APEX 112Event APEX 132.01Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 82

111WildStang

Season APEX 241Event APEX 183.83Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8122Mechanical Mustaches

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX 5.32Rank 34Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8880, 2151, 2338

/ 100 compat

Projected

147.1 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 8880, 2151, 2338

Auto

29.5 21%

Teleop

92.5 65%

Endgame

21.0 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5934, 111, 8122

/ 100 compat

Projected

321.2 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 5934, 111, 8122

Auto

67.6 21%

Teleop

181.4 57%

Endgame

67.2 21%

Strengths

· 111 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.83 · Blue 2.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score147.1pts

Blue projected score321.2pts

Red win probability10%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -174
Score range: 116–352
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 481 vs event baseline 171.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

381Season APEX414.6

29.5Auto67.6

92.5Teleop181.4

21Endgame67.2

50Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	76
teleop	64	185
endgame	60	32
foul	5	10
total	178	303

Result

Final score

178 – 303

Prediction correct · off by 24.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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