Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

188.69 – 175.3

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

176 – 166

Prediction correct · off by 11 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 350.4 ±15.6

4296Trident Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 75.4Event APEX 25.72Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

8096Cache Money

Season APEX 110.9Event APEX 104.53Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2704Roaring Robotics

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 58.44Rank 21Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 256.9 ±13.3

10435IRS - Intelligent Robotic Systems

Season APEX 139.3Event APEX 119.54Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3067Robovikes

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 21.07Rank 29Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6651Golden Bots

Season APEX 51.1Event APEX 34.69Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4296, 8096, 2704

/ 100 compat

Projected

188.7 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 4296, 8096, 2704

Auto

27.1 14%

Teleop

112.1 59%

Endgame

49.6 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10435, 3067, 6651

/ 100 compat

Projected

175.3 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 10435, 3067, 6651

Auto

30.6 18%

Teleop

96.3 57%

Endgame

43.4 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.72 · Blue 1.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score188.7pts

Blue projected score175.3pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 13.4
Score range: 144–220
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 342 vs event baseline 171.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

350.4Season APEX256.9

27.1Auto30.6

112.1Teleop96.3

49.6Endgame43.4

21Consistency58

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	46
teleop	76	74
endgame	34	46
foul	30	0
total	176	166

Result

Final score

176 – 166

Prediction correct · off by 11 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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