Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

80.36 – 73.69

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

38 – 26

Prediction correct · off by 45 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 249.5 ±16.5

2022Titan Robotics

Season APEX 94.1Event APEX 20.71Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

9669Regina Riveters

Provisional

Season APEX 56.4Event APEX 2.01Rank 31Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2358Bearbotics

Season APEX 99Event APEX 57.64Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 208.1 ±16.6

1781Lindblom Electric Eagles

Season APEX 88.3Event APEX 52.13Rank 17Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

4702Cyberdogz

Provisional

Season APEX 58.2Event APEX 15.27Rank 33Record 2-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

8122Mechanical Mustaches

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX 6.29Rank 34Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2022, 9669, 2358

/ 100 compat

Projected

80.4 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 2022, 9669, 2358

Auto

18.8 25%

Teleop

42.6 58%

Endgame

12.4 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1781, 4702, 8122

/ 100 compat

Projected

73.7 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 1781, 4702, 8122

Auto

20.2 29%

Teleop

35.1 50%

Endgame

14.7 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.64 · Blue 1.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score80.4pts

Blue projected score73.7pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 6.7
Score range: 41–113
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 64 vs event baseline 181.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

249.5Season APEX208.1

18.8Auto20.2

42.6Teleop35.1

12.4Endgame14.7

56Consistency41

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	14
teleop	16	9
endgame	4	3
foul	0	0
total	38	26

Result

Final score

38 – 26

Prediction correct · off by 45 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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