Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

142.11 – 283.66

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

180 – 286

Prediction correct · off by 20.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 244.8 ±16

10435IRS - Intelligent Robotic Systems

Season APEX 139.3Event APEX 111.73Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8122Mechanical Mustaches

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX 5.89Rank 34Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4863The Chicago Style BotPups

Provisional

Season APEX 43.9Event APEX 24.49Rank 25Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 470.9 ±15.1

4702Cyberdogz

Provisional

Season APEX 58.2Event APEX 13.51Rank 33Record 2-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2704Roaring Robotics

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 56.48Rank 21Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5847Ironclad

Season APEX 248.6Event APEX 213.67Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10435, 8122, 4863

/ 100 compat

Projected

142.1 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 10435, 8122, 4863

Auto

13.1 9%

Teleop

83.5 57%

Endgame

50.8 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4702, 2704, 5847

/ 100 compat

Projected

283.7 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 4702, 2704, 5847

Auto

53.8 20%

Teleop

163.1 59%

Endgame

58.5 21%

Strengths

· 5847 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.84 · Blue 2.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score142.1pts

Blue projected score283.7pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -141.5
Score range: 111–315
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 466 vs event baseline 171.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

244.8Season APEX470.9

13.1Auto53.8

83.5Teleop163.1

50.8Endgame58.5

61Consistency2

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	58
teleop	95	168
endgame	47	60
foul	0	0
total	180	286

Result

Final score

180 – 286

Prediction correct · off by 20.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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