Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

90 – 140.25

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

122 – 101

Prediction missed · off by 35.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 274.5 ±13.4

11173STAR FORCE

Season APEX 126.3Event APEX -0.94Rank 35Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 91

6651Golden Bots

Season APEX 51.1Event APEX 35.7Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8880Terra Cyborg

Season APEX 97.1Event APEX 55.24Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 284.2 ±15.6

2151PMSA Monty Pythons

Provisional

Season APEX 32.6Event APEX 8.55Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2022Titan Robotics

Season APEX 94.1Event APEX 30.5Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

8020CyberpunK

Season APEX 157.5Event APEX 101.2Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11173, 6651, 8880

/ 100 compat

Projected

90 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 11173, 6651, 8880

Auto

20.1 22%

Teleop

61.3 67%

Endgame

10.4 11%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2151, 2022, 8020

/ 100 compat

Projected

140.3 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 2151, 2022, 8020

Auto

20.3 16%

Teleop

75.7 60%

Endgame

30.7 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.28 · Blue 1.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score90pts

Blue projected score140.3pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -50.2
Score range: 59–171
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 223 vs event baseline 173.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

274.5Season APEX284.2

20.1Auto20.3

61.3Teleop75.7

10.4Endgame30.7

111Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	26
teleop	77	50
endgame	12	5
foul	5	20
total	122	101

Result

Final score

122 – 101

Prediction missed · off by 35.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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