Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

89.25 – 162.4

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

70 – 160

Prediction correct · off by 10.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 188.3 ±14.6

8029Steel Bronco Robotics

Season APEX 75.6Event APEX 25.2Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7201Crobotics

Season APEX 46.2Event APEX 26.93Rank 30Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 80

4645The Chicago Style BotDogs

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 37.12Rank 26Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 394.2 ±15.6

2358Bearbotics

Season APEX 99Event APEX 52.35Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4863The Chicago Style BotPups

Provisional

Season APEX 43.9Event APEX 23.78Rank 25Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

2338Gear It Forward

Season APEX 251.3Event APEX 86.27Rank 4Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8029, 7201, 4645

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.3 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 8029, 7201, 4645

Auto

32.5 40%

Teleop

28.8 36%

Endgame

19.1 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2358, 4863, 2338

/ 100 compat

Projected

162.4 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 2358, 4863, 2338

Auto

38.0 23%

Teleop

93.0 56%

Endgame

36.2 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.05 · Blue 2.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score89.3pts

Blue projected score162.4pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -73.1
Score range: 58–193
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 230 vs event baseline 171.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

188.3Season APEX394.2

32.5Auto38

28.8Teleop93

19.1Endgame36.2

34Consistency18

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	36
teleop	23	110
endgame	24	14
foul	0	0
total	70	160

Result

Final score

70 – 160

Prediction correct · off by 10.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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