Qualification · Qualification 41
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
95.19 – 72.4
57%43%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
79 – 57
Prediction correct · off by 15.8 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 285.3 ±17
4296Trident Robotics
Provisional
Season APEX 75.4Event APEX 35.4Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73
Season APEX 126.3Event APEX 0.6Rank 35Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 91
Season APEX 83.6Event APEX 59.19Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 181.4 ±16
9669Regina Riveters
Provisional
Season APEX 56.4Event APEX 12Rank 31Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73
Season APEX 63.4Event APEX 54.82Rank 22Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94
Season APEX 61.6Event APEX 5.58Rank 34Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 4296, 11173, 5822
42
/ 100 compatProjected
95.2 pts
~1.7 RP (regional)
Teams: 4296, 11173, 5822
Auto
15.5 17%
Teleop
41.1 45%
Endgame
34.0 38%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 53%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 9669, 3472, 8122
41
/ 100 compatProjected
72.4 pts
~1.4 RP (regional)
Teams: 9669, 3472, 8122
Auto
24.8 34%
Teleop
30.6 43%
Endgame
16.5 23%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 53%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.71 · Blue 1.39
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score95.2pts
Blue projected score72.4pts
Red win probability57%
Event bonus sample148alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 53%, blue 50%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 22.8
- Score range
- 41–126
- Upset likelihood
- 43%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
285.3Season APEX181.4
15.5Auto24.8
41.1Teleop30.6
34Endgame16.5
61Consistency72
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 15 | 24 |
| teleop | 28 | 21 |
| endgame | 16 | 12 |
| foul | 20 | 0 |
| total | 79 | 57 |
Result
Final score
79 – 57
Prediction correct · off by 15.8 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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