Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

232.99 – 167.99

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

274 – 209

Prediction correct · off by 41 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 397.1 ±15.6

111WildStang

Season APEX 241Event APEX 171.47Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4702Cyberdogz

Provisional

Season APEX 58.2Event APEX 8.02Rank 33Record 2-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2290FLYT

Season APEX 97.9Event APEX 53.5Rank 10Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 360 ±12.4

6651Golden Bots

Season APEX 51.1Event APEX 31.87Rank 24Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1781Lindblom Electric Eagles

Season APEX 88.3Event APEX 41.6Rank 17Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

48Team E.L.I.T.E.

Season APEX 220.6Event APEX 94.52Rank 13Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 111, 4702, 2290

/ 100 compat

Projected

233 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 111, 4702, 2290

Auto

51.9 23%

Teleop

133.4 58%

Endgame

44.4 19%

Strengths

· 111 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6651, 1781, 48

/ 100 compat

Projected

168 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 6651, 1781, 48

Auto

32.8 20%

Teleop

93.6 56%

Endgame

40.0 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.01 · Blue 1.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score233pts

Blue projected score168pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 65
Score range: 137–264
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 483 vs event baseline 171.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

397.1Season APEX360

51.9Auto32.8

133.4Teleop93.6

44.4Endgame40

85Consistency93

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	50
teleop	156	118
endgame	63	41
foul	15	0
total	274	209

Result

Final score

274 – 209

Prediction correct · off by 41 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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