Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

221.02 – 296.44

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

138 – 330

Prediction correct · off by 58.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 277.3 ±12.7

4787Axiom

Season APEX 90Event APEX 73.46Rank 27Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8880Terra Cyborg

Season APEX 97.1Event APEX 64.53Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

112Plus One

Season APEX 90.2Event APEX 83.03Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 501.5 ±12.2

2338Gear It Forward

Season APEX 251.3Event APEX 82.22Rank 4Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10435IRS - Intelligent Robotic Systems

Season APEX 139.3Event APEX 104.83Rank 9Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8096Cache Money

Season APEX 110.9Event APEX 109.39Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4787, 8880, 112

/ 100 compat

Projected

221 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 4787, 8880, 112

Auto

22.2 10%

Teleop

148.0 66%

Endgame

53.6 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2338, 10435, 8096

/ 100 compat

Projected

296.4 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 2338, 10435, 8096

Auto

48.4 16%

Teleop

185.6 61%

Endgame

70.9 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.24 · Blue 2.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score221pts

Blue projected score296.4pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -75.4
Score range: 190–327
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 468 vs event baseline 170.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

277.3Season APEX501.5

22.2Auto48.4

148Teleop185.6

53.6Endgame70.9

66Consistency48

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	56
teleop	75	196
endgame	35	78
foul	5	0
total	138	330

Result

Final score

138 – 330

Prediction correct · off by 58.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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