Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

122.64 – 76.06

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

142 – 54

Prediction correct · off by 20.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 324.7 ±13.3

2704Roaring Robotics

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 59.58Rank 21Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4645The Chicago Style BotDogs

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 35.75Rank 26Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

2022Titan Robotics

Season APEX 94.1Event APEX 27.31Rank 20Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 169.4 ±15.8

7201Crobotics

Season APEX 46.2Event APEX 28.48Rank 30Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 80

3734StarBots

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 32.89Rank 23Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 79

7417Bionic Bombers

Season APEX 53.6Event APEX 14.69Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2704, 4645, 2022

/ 100 compat

Projected

122.6 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 2704, 4645, 2022

Auto

14.4 12%

Teleop

66.7 55%

Endgame

39.9 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7201, 3734, 7417

/ 100 compat

Projected

76.1 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 7201, 3734, 7417

Auto

11.9 17%

Teleop

22.8 32%

Endgame

37.3 52%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.88 · Blue 1.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score122.6pts

Blue projected score76.1pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 46.6
Score range: 45–154
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 196 vs event baseline 172.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

324.7Season APEX169.4

14.4Auto11.9

66.7Teleop22.8

39.9Endgame37.3

29Consistency45

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	14
teleop	74	11
endgame	24	9
foul	15	20
total	142	54

Result

Final score

142 – 54

Prediction correct · off by 20.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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