Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

30.21 – 215.92

9%91%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

25 – 325

Prediction correct · off by 57.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 236.3 ±16.6

9669Regina Riveters

Provisional

Season APEX 56.4Event APEX 11.75Rank 31Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

7417Bionic Bombers

Season APEX 53.6Event APEX 20.24Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11173STAR FORCE

Season APEX 126.3Event APEX -1.78Rank 35Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 451.3 ±13.6

7201Crobotics

Season APEX 46.2Event APEX 14.73Rank 30Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 80

2704Roaring Robotics

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 43.89Rank 21Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

111WildStang

Season APEX 241Event APEX 157.3Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9669, 7417, 11173

/ 100 compat

Projected

30.2 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 9669, 7417, 11173

Auto

8.5 37%

Teleop

-3.9 0%

Endgame

18.4 80%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7201, 2704, 111

/ 100 compat

Projected

215.9 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 7201, 2704, 111

Auto

48.6 23%

Teleop

124.0 58%

Endgame

40.9 19%

Strengths

· 111 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.73 · Blue 2.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score30.2pts

Blue projected score215.9pts

Red win probability9%

Event bonus sample148alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -185.7
Score range: -1–247
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 350 vs event baseline 171.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

236.3Season APEX451.3

8.5Auto48.6

-3.9Teleop124

18.4Endgame40.9

84Consistency107

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	61
teleop	5	206
endgame	8	58
foul	0	0
total	25	325

Result

Final score

25 – 325

Prediction correct · off by 57.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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